Consolidated Data
This graph is a combination of art and
science. Given the finite number of units in each category, average
square foot prices were approximated when there were no sales of a
particular type in a given period. For example, there are just 15
Oceanview units on floors 1-3 on the side of the building. There are
large gaps in time between sales.
What we see over the past five years is
a steady upswing in prices reflected by the Oahu real estate market in
general. Colony Surf prices have nearly tripled since 2000.
There were several joined units sold
during the period. For units in the same catagory, prices were divided
by total square footage. Units that crossed catagories (04/05 combos)
were left out of the data as I was unable to invent a way to calculate
square footage prices between catagories.
Interestingly, while this was
necessary in the beginning it is no longer the case. Costs per
square foot have nearly equalized throughout the building -- the
exception being floors 1-3. Above the third floor, the cost per
square foot on in the 05-09 stack are nearly identical with the
oceanfront units costing <$100/sft more.
Whether this boom and
price
equalization goes bust is anyone's
guess. Reports in the newspapers suggest a softer landing than
previous housing boom/bust cycles -- but who knows. In February
2006, homes across Oahu are staying on the market longer and there is
more inventory. This hints at falling prices to come, but I'm no
crystal ball.
Summary
Clearly
the Colony Surf has been an
active participant in the recent upward trend in Hawaiian Real Estate.
Unit prices per square foot have caught up with neighboring buildings.
In the 1990's. the global economy, Asian sell-off, the Colony Surf
Hotel bankruptcy, and subsequent mass-selling of those units drove
prices down.
Recent moves by the building to convert
from leasehold to fee simple ownership and an ongoing planned
conversion from
co-op to condo will help the building continue to increase in value.
This is especially key to attracting buyers in need of financing -- fee
simple condos get better interest rates than leasehold co-op units.